Blackjack Odds Explained

Understanding blackjack odds and how they may vary according to the specific rules of each game variant is crucial to improving your blackjack strategy. Alongside proper basic strategy, understanding the odds and the house edge in this classic casino game will also go a long way in helping you choose the right game variant and make the smartest moves with your cards.

If you want to understand casino blackjack odds, how they work, and what you can do to reduce the game’s house advantage, this simple blackjack guide will explain it all. You’ll learn the basics to help you play with the best odds and increase the likelihood of beating the dealer.

What Are Blackjack Odds?

Blackjack odds represent the chance of a specific outcome occurring and are expressed as a ratio. The odds are calculated using the probability in blackjack, usually percentages. For example, the odds of being dealt a blackjack are generally around 4.83%.

Player’s Blackjack Odds Table

The blackjack probability of winning the game differs for every card combination you’re dealt. Based on the total value of your hand, you can calculate how likely you are to beat the dealer.

You can use the probability table below to determine how weak or strong your hand is.

🫰 Hand Value	💸 Probability
11 or lower	0%
12	31%
13	39%
14	56%
15	58%
16	62%
17	69%
18	77%
19	85%
20	92%
21	100%

Dealer’s Odds Table

Next, let’s look at the dealer’s odds based on the card they have. The table below indicates how likely the dealer is to bust, based on blackjack games with the rule that the dealer stands on 17.

🫰 Dealer’s Card	💸 Probability (Stand on 17)
Ace	17%
2	35%
3	37%
4	40%
5	42%
6	42%
7	26%
8	24%
9	23%
10	23%

How to Calculate Blackjack Odds?

Using a blackjack odds calculator is the easiest and most efficient way of calculating the odds. These tools can be found online and are easy to use if you know the game’s rules. To get an accurate percentage, you simply need to enter the specific rules of the game into the calculator, including things like the following:

• The number of decks used
• Rules for doubling down and splitting
• Whether surrendering is allowed
• Whether blackjack pays 6:5 or 3:2

Alternatively, you can also follow the step-by-step instructions below to calculate the odds without using a calculator.

• Choose a blackjack variant and check the rules.
• Determine the probability of every outcome possible in the game.
• Determine the value of every possible outcome.
• Sum up the above to calculate the overall expected value.
• Subtract the overall value from 1 to get the house edge as a percentage.

Odds by Blackjack Type

The odds of winning blackjack vary according to the blackjack variant chosen. As you may know, there are several variations of standard blackjack, with different rules or bets that can influence the blackjack winning odds.

Classic Blackjack Odds

Classic blackjack is the most common type of blackjack you can find at online casinos and land-based gambling venues. It’s also called American blackjack sometimes, played with eight decks of 52 cards. The blackjack payout odds for this blackjack type are as follows:

🫰 Hand Value	💸Probability
21	4.8%
17-20	30%
1-16	38.70%

European Blackjack Odds

European blackjack is also a popular casino game with rules different from the classic version. This blackjack uses two 52-card decks, and more importantly, the dealer stands if they reach a soft 17 in this game. The overall winning probability is about 42%.

🫰 Hand Value	💸 Probability
21	4.8%
17-20	30%
1-16	38.70%

Blackjack Switch Odds

An interesting blackjack variant is Blackjack Switch, which allows you to play two hands simultaneously and switch cards between hands after the initial deal. Although the rules significantly differ from standard blackjack, the overall probability of winning is the same.

🫰 Hand Value	💸 Probability
21	4.8%
17-20	30%
1-16	38.70%

Face Up 21 Blackjack Odds

In Face Up 21 blackjack casino games, all the cards are dealt facing up, even the dealer’s. Usually, you can only see one card until every player has taken their turn. The winning probability is also around 42%, the same for nearly all blackjack games. However, remember that a push doesn’t apply in Face Up 21 because a tie equals a loss.

🫰 Hand Value	💸 Probability
21	4.8%
17-20	30%
1-16	38.70%

Free Bet Blackjack Odds

Free Bet blackjack is the only game variant that allows you to double and split without placing an additional bet on specific hands. For example, if you have a hard 9, 19, or 11, you can double down your initial bet with a free bet. However, the house edge is higher than other blackjack casino games.

The Blackjack Free Bet odds are listed below:

🫰 Hand Value	💸 Probability
21	4.8%
17-20	30%
1-16	38.70%

Blackjack Hands and Their Odds

Apart from the standard blackjack bet, which is placed to join the game, you can try many other bets when playing online blackjack games. These side bets have different odds and payouts, and it’s important to understand how they work before playing them and how to play blackjack like a professional.

Insurance

The insurance side bet is offered in all online blackjack games whenever the dealer’s face up card is an Ace. The insurance bet will cost you an additional wager equal to half your original one and pays 2:1 if the dealer gets blackjack. If they don’t, the insurance bet is lost. Like most blackjack side bets odds, the insurance bet winning odds are rather low.

Surrender

Some blackjack games allow you to surrender, which you can use if you get weak hole cards. If you know your hand can’t compete against the dealer and you’re almost certain you’ll lose, you can forfeit your cards and exit the game for that round.

You can surrender in online blackjack games in two ways, depending on the game rules.

• Early Surrender – This rule allows you to surrender half your initial wager before the dealer checks for blackjack.
• Late Surrender – This is the most common surrender rule, allowing you to surrender your cards for half your original stake after the dealer checks their cards.

The Number of Decks Used

You might notice when playing blackjack that the number of decks tends to vary according to the game variant. Most blackjack games use between one and eight standard decks of 52 cards. The probability of blackjack isn’t affected, but the odds of getting 21 and the game’s house edge are.

21+3

The 21+3 bet is a common blackjack side bet that can be placed in addition to the regular one. This is a wager that your hole cards and the dealer’s upcard will form one of the poker hands described in the table below. It’s important to note that these bets offer some of the highest blackjack payouts but have the lowest odds in blackjack.

The 21+3 blackjack odds are described below:

🫰 Bet Type	📝 Bet Description	⚖️ Odds
Flush	Betting that your cards and the dealer’s will have the same suit. For example, all diamonds.	5:1
Straight	A bet that these three cards will be in sequence, for example, 4, 5, and 6.	10:1
Three of a Kind	Three cards with the same face value, like three queen cards with different suits.	30:1
Straight Flush	Three cards with the same suit in consecutive order. For example, 3, 4, and 5 of hearts.	40:1
Suited Three of a Kind	Three cards with the same value and suit, such as three	100:1

Perfect Pairs

The Perfect Pairs side bet is a bet on your first two cards. In other words, it’s a bet that your first two cards will be a pair. There are three types of Perfect Pairs bets you can make. Like the 21+3 bet, the Perfect Pair blackjack odds are low, as shown in the blackjack odds table below.

🫰 Bet Type	📝 Bet Description	⚖️ Odds
Perfect Pair	A bet that you’ll be dealt two identical cards with the same suit, colour, and value. For example, two Aces of hearts.	25:1
Coloured Pair	A pair of cards with the same value and colour but different suits. For example, a Queen of diamonds and a Queen of hearts.	12:1
Mixed Pair	A pair of cards with the same value but different suits and colours. For example, a three of hearts and a three of spades.	5:1

6 to 5 Odds

6 to 5 blackjack odds refers to blackjack tables which offer a 6:5 payout when getting a blackjack, as opposed to the usual 3:2 payout. 3:2 blackjack casino games offer a higher payout (1.5x your initial wager) when getting a 21, so we always advise choosing these tables. Most online casinos offer 3:2 blackjack, but some land-based casinos have the 6:5 version of the game.

What is the House Edge in Blackjack?

The blackjack house edge refers to the casino’s advantage over you as a player. Every online casino game has a house edge, which is how the casino makes a profit, even if players occasionally get a substantial win.

The house edge can also be referred to as the casino or house advantage, and it’s important to remember that it’s always there. Compared to other casino games, blackjack has a low house edge, which is one of the reasons it’s one of the most popular casino games in the world.

Since blackjack is a game of luck and skill, your skills can influence your odds of winning by lowering the house edge even further. This is commonly done by playing with basic strategy, a system of playing blackjack that’s statistically proven to be the optimal way.

While basic strategy can’t eliminate the house edge, you can guarantee you’ll get the best odds for blackjack games by making the right moves with your cards. Alongside basic strategy, card counting is also an effective strategy for lowering the house advantage, but it’s not effective at online casinos. Moreover, it’s very difficult for new players to master this strategy.

The blackjack odds chart below compares the house edge for different blackjack variants.

♠️ Blackjack Game	✔️ House Edge
👉 American Blackjack	0.61%
👉 European Blackjack	0.39%
👉 Vegas Downtown Blackjack	0.39%
👉 Vegas Strip Blackjack	0.36%

How Do Blackjack Rules Affect the House Edge?

Blackjack variants have different rules that generally impact the game’s house edge. Different rules can reduce or increase the casino’s advantage, so it’s important to be aware of how they determine the house edge so you can choose the right variations with blackjack best odds.

Let’s examine some of the rules that can influence the blackjack house odds:

• The rules for the dealer’s hand – The best blackjack odds can be found on tables where the dealer must stand on a soft 17. If they can hit past soft 17, the house edge increases by roughly 0.22%.
• The number of decks used – The higher the number of decks used in the game, the higher the house edge in most cases. This is because the probability of being dealt a blackjack decreases slightly if more decks are used. In a single deck game, the likelihood of getting a blackjack is around 4.82%.
• Blackjack pays 3:2 – Tables which pay 3:2 for a blackjack offer the best odds because this equals a payout of 1.5x your stake. Compared to 6:5 tables, which pay 1.2x for blackjack, these offer much better odds.

Blackjack Return to Player (RTP)

The RTP, short for ‘return to player‘ rate, is a similar concept to the house edge explained earlier, but it refers to the player’s advantage rather than the casino’s. The RTP is a theoretical percentage of wagers returned to players as winnings.

Millions of blackjack games are simulated to estimate the theoretical RTP, so it should only be used as a rough indicator of what your odds in the game are.

Unlike the house edge, which should be as low as possible, the RTP rate should be as high as possible to indicate favourable odds for players. With a low house edge, blackjack generally offers a high RTP rate of at least 99%.

FAQs – Frequently Asked Questions About Blackjack Odds